Block is setting back up, could mean good times for Fred down the road
Posted by
JAC on 1/20/2011, 8:20 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 347 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 24 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 27 2011
USED THE 00Z/20 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE HAS BEEN STABLE FOR SEVERAL CYCLES NOW...WITH SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET...COMING INTO LINE WITH IT ON A COUPLE KEY SHORTWAVES DURING THE SHORT RANGE. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAY 3...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET FINALLY ON A SIMILAR PAGE. EVEN THE DAY 1 WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES HAS BEEN HANDLED DISPARATELY BY THE GFS...GEM GLOBAL...AND UKMET UNTIL THIS CURRENT CYCLE...WHEN THEY HAVE MERGED TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. THE CURRENT ECMWF IS WELL CORRELATED WITH THE 12Z/19 ECENS MEAN FOR ALL THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFFECTING THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTH AND TURNING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST...LIKE MANY OF ITS PREDECESSORS THIS WINTER...IS VERY MUCH AT THE MERCY OF INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE GUIDANCE HAS VACILLATED BETWEEN BRINGING THE ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND KEEPING IT JUST OFFSHORE. WITH THE CRITICAL MASS OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE OF CIRCULATION TO HERNIATE INLAND...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES INDICATED. THE FAR WEST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET...STUCK UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE OF THE BLOCKY REGIME EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME ARCTIC AIR WILL GET INCORPORATED INTO THE BLOCKINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE.
CISCO
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In this thread:
OK JAC--what's your weather for Monday 24? -
freesong,
1/19/2011, 10:48 pm- Re: OK JAC--what's your weather for Monday 24? - BobbiStorm, 1/22/2011, 11:32 pm
- Not looking so bad today - JAC, 1/21/2011, 7:28 am
- EURO has NAO taking a nose dive - JAC, 1/20/2011, 8:13 am
- Block is setting back up, could mean good times for Fred down the road - JAC, 1/20/2011, 8:20 am
- Re: OK JAC--what's your weather for Monday 24? - JAC, 1/20/2011, 7:40 am
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