Block is setting back up, could mean good times for Fred down the road
Posted by JAC on 1/20/2011, 8:20 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
347 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 24 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 27 2011


USED THE 00Z/20 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.  THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE HAS BEEN STABLE FOR SEVERAL CYCLES NOW...WITH SOME OF THE
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET...COMING INTO LINE WITH
IT ON A COUPLE KEY SHORTWAVES DURING THE SHORT RANGE.  THE ECMWF
HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE WAVE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST DAY 3...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET FINALLY ON A
SIMILAR PAGE.  EVEN THE DAY 1 WAVE CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BEEN HANDLED DISPARATELY BY THE GFS...GEM GLOBAL...AND
UKMET UNTIL THIS CURRENT CYCLE...WHEN THEY HAVE MERGED TOWARD THE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF.  THE CURRENT ECMWF IS WELL CORRELATED WITH THE
12Z/19 ECENS MEAN FOR ALL THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFFECTING
THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE WAVE
CROSSING THE SOUTH AND TURNING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST...LIKE MANY
OF ITS PREDECESSORS THIS WINTER...IS VERY MUCH AT THE MERCY OF
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY.  THE GUIDANCE HAS
VACILLATED BETWEEN BRINGING THE ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER
THE NORTHEAST...AND KEEPING IT JUST OFFSHORE.  WITH THE CRITICAL
MASS OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THAN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
PORTION OF THE OF CIRCULATION TO HERNIATE INLAND...WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES INDICATED.  THE FAR WEST WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET...STUCK UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE OF THE BLOCKY REGIME EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  SOME ARCTIC AIR
WILL GET INCORPORATED INTO THE BLOCKINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
POSSIBLE.


CISCO  


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OK JAC--what's your weather for Monday 24? - freesong, 1/19/2011, 10:48 pm
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