HPC: Models have some agreement on wave
Posted by
JAC on 2/3/2011, 5:50 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 400 AM EST THU FEB 03 2011
GOING ALONG WITH THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHRTWV DETAILS OVER THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD... GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVERSE WITH POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST AROUND MON-TUE. THE UKMET IS THE FAST EXTREME WHILE THE CANADIAN IS SLOWEST. ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GAINED SOME DEFINITION OVER THE PAST DAY AND TRENDED FASTER... BUT EVEN WITH A FASTER TREND THEY ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLN SPREAD. BEHIND THIS FEATURE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TO A GREATER EXTENT 00Z AND 12Z/2 ECMWF RUNS BRING ANOTHER SHRTWV INTO THE EAST. LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN SUCH SPECIFICS A WEEK OUT IN TIME PRECLUDES A SFC EVOLUTION AS STRONG AS THE ECMWF RUNS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST REASONABLE AGREEMENT UPON A WAVY FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST.
RAUSCH
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS DEPICTED TOO QUICK AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MORE THAN FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WAS 12-24 HOURS TOO QUICK WITH THE DECEMBER 26 CYCLONE...JANUARY 26-27 CYCLONE...AND THE CURRENT GROUNDHOG DAY CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST...WHOSE VERIFIED SOLUTIONS WERE EITHER ALONG OR OUTSIDE THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD SIX TO SEVEN DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE LAST TWO CASES ARE EITHER DUE TO TOO MUCH PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THAT TIME RANGE...OR AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRONG /PRECEDING/ SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS IS THE REASON WHY THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z UKMET/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WERE NOT TRUSTED BEYOND DAY 5...OTHER THAN THEIR UNUSUAL-LOOKING CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES-WIDE UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z CANADIAN SHOWS AN EVEN SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE EASTERN SYSTEM.
ROTH
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In this thread:
12z Euro alert -
Shalista,
2/2/2011, 2:24 pm- I;m really getting tired of this Weather - ArgosyTn, 2/4/2011, 1:02 pm
- I count 6 - JAC, 2/4/2011, 7:45 am
- 00Z GFS Snow-Total: Could be nasty for the East Coast - JAC, 2/4/2011, 7:42 am
- 2/3/11 18zGFS - Fred, 2/3/2011, 6:22 pm
- Might have a little suprise this weekend. - JAC, 2/3/2011, 2:59 pm
- SREF - JAC, 2/3/2011, 4:21 pm
- HPC - JAC, 2/3/2011, 4:19 pm
- holy cannoli - Fred, 2/3/2011, 2:19 pm
- 00Z GFS Snow Totals 144 hrs out - JAC, 2/3/2011, 6:28 am
- HPC: Models have some agreement on wave - JAC, 2/3/2011, 5:50 am
- Re: 12z Euro alert - JAC, 2/2/2011, 3:09 pm
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