HPC: Models have some agreement on wave
Posted by JAC on 2/3/2011, 5:50 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EST THU FEB 03 2011

GOING ALONG WITH THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHRTWV DETAILS
OVER THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD... GUIDANCE IS
STILL QUITE DIVERSE WITH POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE EAST AROUND MON-TUE.  THE UKMET IS THE FAST EXTREME WHILE
THE CANADIAN IS SLOWEST.  ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE GAINED SOME
DEFINITION OVER THE PAST DAY AND TRENDED FASTER... BUT EVEN WITH A
FASTER TREND THEY ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLN SPREAD.  BEHIND
THIS FEATURE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TO A GREATER EXTENT 00Z AND 12Z/2
ECMWF RUNS BRING ANOTHER SHRTWV INTO THE EAST.  LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN SUCH SPECIFICS A WEEK OUT IN TIME PRECLUDES A SFC EVOLUTION AS
STRONG AS THE ECMWF RUNS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST REASONABLE
AGREEMENT UPON A WAVY FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST.

RAUSCH


IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD IS DEPICTED TOO QUICK AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
MORE THAN FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WAS 12-24 HOURS TOO QUICK WITH
THE DECEMBER 26 CYCLONE...JANUARY 26-27 CYCLONE...AND THE CURRENT
GROUNDHOG DAY CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST...WHOSE VERIFIED
SOLUTIONS WERE EITHER ALONG OR OUTSIDE THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD SIX TO SEVEN DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.  THE
LAST TWO CASES ARE EITHER DUE TO TOO MUCH PHASING BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THAT
TIME RANGE...OR AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRONG /PRECEDING/ SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE.  THIS IS THE REASON WHY THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z
UKMET/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WERE NOT TRUSTED BEYOND DAY 5...OTHER THAN
THEIR UNUSUAL-LOOKING CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES-WIDE UPPER TROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE 12Z CANADIAN SHOWS AN EVEN SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE EASTERN SYSTEM.

ROTH
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12z Euro alert - Shalista, 2/2/2011, 2:24 pm
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