Re: I;m really getting tired of this Weather
Posted by Tim_NC on 2/7/2011, 1:02 pm
Sounds like you're referring to the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation.)

The Pacific Ocean alternates about every 30 years between a warm phase and a cool phase. We recently entered the cool phase.

The last cool phase was the 1940s to 1970s; a period when rising global temperatures paused (see graph below.). It's likely we're now entering another PDO-caused pause (though it will take a few years to really get a handle on that.)

Another factor that may add to a pause in warming is the 'extended solar minimum' we now appear to be in. (Quite a shift from the unusually intense solar activity of the second half of the 20th Century!)

Based on natural activity (the PDO and the collapse of the solar cycle) global temperatures should not only stop rising for the foreseeable future, they should fall...and fall steeply.

Man-caused warming (CO2, methane, deforestation, etc.) will always keep an upward pressure on temperatures but with the natural cycles now going into cold phases, an epic battle between warming and cooling begins (and you can take it to the bank that many will claim victory long before any rational decisions can be made, lol.)

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12z Euro alert - Shalista, 2/2/2011, 2:24 pm
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