CAT 4
Posted by
JAC on 2/20/2011, 10:16 am
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 20/1358 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 940HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 169.5E AT 201200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS AND INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS BY 210000
UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
TC ATU INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. EYE WELL DEFINED. ATU CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY WITH EYE WARMING AND CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLING. OUTFLOW
GOOD. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK NORHTWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON DG EYE W SURROUND YIELDING DT = 6.5, MET =5.0 PT
= 5.5, FT BASED ON PT, THUS T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 17.7S 169.8E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 19.0S 170.2E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 20.6S 170.6E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 22.7S 171.6E MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 202000 UTC.
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In this thread:
South Pac Bad-Boy -
JAC,
2/17/2011, 11:36 am- Solar Watcher Update - JAC, 2/21/2011, 7:35 am
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- 17P - JAC, 2/18/2011, 3:46 pm
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- Interesting - JAC, 2/17/2011, 12:36 pm
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