Texas Hooker spells Severe Outbreak Thursday & Friday
Posted by JAC on 2/21/2011, 8:35 am




ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 210953
  SPC AC 210953
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0353 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011
 
  VALID 241200Z - 011200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON THU/D4 FROM
  ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...NRN MS...CNTRL AND
  WRN KY AND TN...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRI/D5 ACROSS PORTIONS
  OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
 
  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
  TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THU WITH A
  SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FROM ROUGHLY OK AT 12Z TO MO/AR BY 00Z. AHEAD
  OF THE DEEPENING LOW...A RELATIVELY WIDE MOIST/WARM SECTOR WILL BE
  IN PLACE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. STRONG FORCING
  WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
  PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
  WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS
  IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
 
  THE GREATEST THREAT AREA ON THU WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND JUST S OF
  THE SURFACE LOW TRACK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
  LATEST ITERATION OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WOULD
  INCLUDE MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...FAR NRN MS...AND MUCH OF WRN KY AND
  TN.
 
  SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
  FRI/D5...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. AS
  SUCH...THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT FRI WILL LIKELY BE COMPRISED OF
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE COLD FRONT AND A
  STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS...FROM THE DELMARVA SWD ACROSS VA.
  THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...AND
  WOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED...BUT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
  FALL/RISE COUPLET WOULD ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE.
 
  AFTER THE D4 TO D5 TIME FRAME...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY.
 
  ..JEWELL.. 02/21/2011







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Texas Hooker spells Severe Outbreak Thursday & Friday - JAC, 2/21/2011, 8:35 am
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