Mid MS-Valley Under-the-Gun Thursday
Posted by JAC on 2/23/2011, 8:51 am



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1255 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
 
  VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR...NRN
  MS...AND WRN TN...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD
  INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  A POTENT UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA...WILL BE
  PICKED UP BY THE SRN STREAM JET AND WILL EMERGE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
  BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
  MOVES FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR BY 00Z...AND CONTINUING
  NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. INCREASING
  SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
  WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT
  EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 39.50 DEGREE PARALLEL
  AT 00Z.
 
  ...ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO KY AND TN...
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK
  THU MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
  DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND
  PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.  OTHER STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM KS EWD INTO THE
  OH VALLEY WHERE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND
  NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
 
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
  BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
  THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
  TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
  AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
  ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
  EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
  LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
  TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
 
  A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
  THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
  OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
  PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
  A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
  SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
 
  ..JEWELL.. 02/23/2011
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Texas Hooker spells Severe Outbreak Thursday & Friday - JAC, 2/21/2011, 8:35 am
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