Re: HWRF: 965mb in 48 hours?
Posted by chucky7777 on 6/7/2011, 11:19 pm
NHC T.S. Adrian forecast DiscussionTHERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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91E in EPac - CypressTX, 6/4/2011, 3:15 pm
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