Re: HWRF: 965mb in 48 hours?
Posted by CypressTX on 6/8/2011, 7:34 am
don't think so, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac#ADRIAN  , http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/models/data.cgi?basin=ep&year=2011&storm=01

NHC Discussion had this to say at 2 AM:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/4.  ADRIAN IS CURRENTLY IN A COL REGION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF ADRIAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 H OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  WHILE GENERALLY AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPER-ENSEMBLE ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BRING ADRIAN NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING IT PARALLEL TO THE COAST.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP THE STORM FARTHER OFFSHORE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
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91E in EPac - CypressTX, 6/4/2011, 3:15 pm
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