Re: What's to Blame for Wild Weather? "La Nada"
Posted by
Conclue on 6/25/2011, 11:19 am
This is a stupid article. You can NOT possibly attribute a weather pattern to one atmospheric teleconnection. I don't know how this got to the presses. I'm sure you guys feel it's just a PR cover up but this is all bull to begin with.
You have to consider how all the teleconnection phases work in unison in order to accurately analyze and interpret how the atmosphere will respond in any given situation.
Not only was there a strong La Nina episode, but we also had anomalous phases of AO, NAO & PNA. The PNA is strongly driven by ENSO and the set up of these teleconnections created a favorable blocking pattern over the northern pacific and northern atlantic by greenland (also associated with the record melt in greenland this year from the contious advection of warm moist air into this region). These blocking mechanisms allowed for anamlous cold air to "pour" into the CONUS. Another note of interest is that precipatable water as a DJF average was anomalously low for the season; thereby indicating that the extreme weather events in terms of snowfall and the rest was not so much associated with a rise in water vapor in the air offering harder snowfall, but the synoptic flow set up was quite active and stagnent due to these blocking mechanisms and thus all precipiation resulted in snow and thus created a very memorable and historic winter season.
As for the spring, research conducted at UAlbany indicates that extreme weather patterns tend to occur during transtional phases of various atmospheric teleconnections such as ENSO, PNA, NAO & AO. I didn't do research on the spring season, but if I did, I would imagine there would be a more viable conclusion for this information.
Personally without looking at much data you have tor remember that greenhouse gases are growing expotnetially from season to season. There is more water vapor in the atmosphere than usual each year (worldwide). With these points in mind, if we kinow that severe weather is based upon the clashing of cold dry airmasses with hot moist airmasses;, you could attribute crazy severe weather to the fact that it was still anomalously cold during the early spring in much of the country with the sun angle rapidly changing and more direct solar radiation heating the tropics. With an excess of greenhouse gases in the tropics (primarly water vapor) it will heat far quicker each year than the year prior to it. With extreme cold air still intruding fthe CONUS late into spring and hot air building in from the tropics north.... well that pretty much gives you a basis.
The question becomes what other influences from various teleconnections and other syntopic/dynamical features are influencing the strong shear that has been seen this year, both vertical and unidirectional that helped to create the record number of tornadoes.
Climatologists can play safe all day and say you can't attribute this or that to AGW, which is true, but sometimes they go to far with it and common sense is thrown out the window for PR's shake. The climate is changing faster than humans can study it.
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