P07L Synopsis
Posted by
JAC on 7/20/2011, 1:43 pm
From last year's PREDICT team, Montgomery Reasearch, Naval Post-Grad Met School
http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P07L.html
SYNOPSIS 2011072000
P07L 13N, 39W 925hPa
GFS has the weakest depiction of P07L. In an attempt to get as many forecast positions out of GFS, I dropped down to 925 hPa. However, it does not make much of a difference, especially for the other models, which have a distinct depiction of P07L at all three levels (700, 850, and 925 hPa).
ECMWF: ECMWF now looks more like UKMET, intensifying P07L.
GFS: Consistent story. Ignores the eastern development of an OW max, especially up at 700 hPa. However, today I tracked down at 925 hPa because the pouch is more clearly defined now at lower levels. The story for GFS remains the same, though: A large, distinct pouch at analysis gradually dissipates as it moves toward the Caribbean.
UKMET: UKMET remains consistent: Develops a tropical storm with a track that stays farther north than that of weakening GFS.
NOGAPS: For the past few days, NOGAPS has killed P07L. Today, NOGAPS maintains it until 120 hours.
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In this thread:
CMC next week -
tapesit,
7/20/2011, 12:18 pm- Re: CMC next week - BobbiStorm, 7/21/2011, 7:42 am
- What does this track remind you of? - JAC, 7/20/2011, 9:57 pm
- 12Z Euro runs thru the FL Straits & spins up in GOM - JAC, 7/20/2011, 6:28 pm
- Re: CMC next week - JAC, 7/20/2011, 6:21 pm
- P07L Synopsis - JAC, 7/20/2011, 1:43 pm
- Re: CMC next week - stormlover, 7/20/2011, 12:33 pm
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