P07L Synopsis
Posted by JAC on 7/20/2011, 1:43 pm
From last year's PREDICT team, Montgomery Reasearch, Naval Post-Grad Met School



http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P07L.html


SYNOPSIS 2011072000

P07L
13N, 39W
925hPa

GFS has the weakest depiction of P07L.  In an attempt to get as many forecast positions out of GFS, I dropped down to 925 hPa.  However, it does not make much of a difference, especially for the other models, which have a distinct depiction of P07L at all three levels (700, 850, and 925 hPa).

ECMWF:  ECMWF now looks more like UKMET, intensifying P07L.

GFS:  Consistent story.  Ignores the eastern development of an OW max, especially up at 700 hPa.  However, today I tracked down at 925 hPa because  the pouch is more clearly defined now at lower levels.  The story for GFS remains the same, though: A large, distinct pouch at analysis gradually dissipates as it moves toward the Caribbean.

UKMET:  UKMET remains consistent:  Develops a tropical storm with a track that stays farther north than that of weakening GFS.

NOGAPS:  For the past few days, NOGAPS has killed P07L.  Today, NOGAPS maintains it until 120 hours.
158
In this thread:
CMC next week - tapesit, 7/20/2011, 12:18 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.