Re: This Got a Name????
Posted by Doorman on 7/28/2011, 7:15 am
Hey Rick

You here that....here what you say.?.... thats right silence
from the peanut gallery this morning


Should I burn my Canetalk membership card???

from the NHC


THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY.  WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH SHEAR...THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
ARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED INITIALLY...WHICH WAS APPARENT ON A 2316Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE
REPRESENTATION OF THIS INITIAL STRUCTURE AND KEEP THE CENTERS FROM
VERTICALLY STACKING...POSSIBLY WHY THESE MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH INTENSIFICATION.  WHILE THE STATISTICALLY MODELS STILL
FORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS FORECAST A
SLOW DECLINE.  ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE SIZE OF DON
MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES IN STRENGTH...BOTH UP AND
DOWN...THAT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST.  GIVEN THE REDUCED
ORGANIZATION...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL ON THE UPPER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR A COMPOSITE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.



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NHC was on this - Doorman, 7/27/2011, 10:34 pm
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