Re: Near 100% Chance at 2am... despite dry air, think will be a TD before it's a TS
Posted by Shalista on 7/31/2011, 10:08 am
GFS has it tracking like this,

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011073106&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Euro has it taking ther same path:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2011073100&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

CMC:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011073100&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

You tell me if the models are not agreeing on this one?

My thinking on this,   I think this is already a TD as it is at 35mph.  Problem is, for how long as it is tracking on it current path pretty quickly at 13mph.  It's just pushing that dry air aside like it was nothing.  As JAC predicted a soalr x class flare just went off yesterday from the sun and will be heading in our direction.  This will definately be a playmaker as to what area of the Earth the solar flare will affect.  JAC will need your assistance on this as I don't know where to go to for this one.  Next 48 hrs....

Will continue development into a strong TS, very quickly, where this thing tracks will depend on the fronts that are coming off the eastren US right now.  I don't think that the mid atlantic need to worry about this system as you are covered by dry air right now.  For now this thing will continue on track where it is for the next 48 hrs.

Now, watching the carribean off the panama coast form some ptential development for something and then as a front is moving off the panhandle of Florida, something might have a potential to dvelop from that since the waters there are ripe enough and no shear.

Any other thoughts?
86
In this thread:
Near 100% Chance at 2am... despite dry air, think will be a TD before it's a TS - BobbiStorm, 7/31/2011, 1:54 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.