Re: Near 100% Chance at 2am... despite dry air, think will be a TD before it's a TS
Posted by
ricksterpr on 7/31/2011, 1:27 pm
From our local NWS:
THE ACTUAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BE CATEGORIZED AS A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH ITS ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...IT WILL BE OVER MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER STATED THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANY TIME
NOW. WE WILL KNOW MORE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA...MAYBE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THE 12Z RUN THAN
THE 06Z RUN. THE 12Z RUN HOWEVER HAS SEVERAL MODELS TRACKING THE
CYCLONE JUST OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND PONCE AND EXITING THROUGH AGUADILLA...WITH
AN INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A WEAKER HURRICANE
Maybe it missess us completely!!! |
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