Critical Point for Maria ? ? ?
Posted by
TuffyE on 9/11/2011, 12:15 pm
It's beyond my knowledge range to completely understand, but it seems that Maria is at a critical point. It's not obvious to me where the shear originates (something like an upper-level high in the NE Carib???) but it looks like she has just about stopped after jogging west for a while. If she can find another degree or two of west longitude, the situation for her is going to change, isn't it? She does have something like "outflow" at some level now, doesn't she? Perhaps the question is whether or not there is enough energy in her LLC to slide west and redevelop. OR... could she redevelop further north?
It also looks to me like there is a disconnect concerning the location fixes at different sources. Has NHC redone some of the fixes? Chris? Tropical Atlantic never seems to be off but looks that way to me now...as if it has been tracking the LLC and not the reported positions?
There is nothing for me to question about the models or forecasts for the strength and direction of storm that we have had, but the tone from NHC sure sounds like they are looking at a different part of her with different strength and direction. That may all just look like a "shift" after the fact, but it seems like an important moment for our Maria. Also, I sure don't see much speed at all now. She visibly appears to have STOPPED. Enough of that and I'd have to figure the timing and effects of lots of dynamic things change. I didnt' think we expected any serious change in speed, did we?
Maybe she's just not interesting to those that know, but I'm sure she is to P.R., Hisp, and the Bahamas about now. |
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Critical Point for Maria ? ? ? - TuffyE, 9/11/2011, 12:15 pm Post A Reply
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