Derek Ortt's update tonight
Posted by cypresstx on 10/16/2011, 8:49 pm
here

Afternoon computer guidance indicates a difference scenario for the disturbance near the Yucatan. Afternoon models no longer indicate that the system will be remaining stationary. Instead, the system has redeveloped far enough to the north that the next frontal system may force a turn more to the north and northeast, toward the central Florida Peninsula. This is likely to occur on Tuesday or Wednesday. The good news for the Pensacola is, no significant effects are expected along the northern Gulf of Mexico. The turn to the northeast should occur soon enough so that all of the heavy rains and winds remain to the south of the area.

Currently, heavy rains are occurring for the Yucatan and the western portions of Cuba. Additional rains are likely for these areas during the next 24 hours. This may cause flooding. Mudslides are not likely since these areas are fairly flat. Conditions should begin to improve on Tuesday as the system moves farther to the north, away from the area. The rains should begin to spread over the Florida Peninsula late Monday or early Tuesday, as the system approaches. The heaviest rain and winds, along with the possibility of severe weather is likely to occur late Tuesday and Wednesday.

It is not certain yet that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone. The presence of a frontal system not far to the north of the system could preclude development. However, regardless as to whether or not development were to occur, the system will bring the previously mentioned weather to the Florida Peninsula. A reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
172
In this thread:
95L - wendy, 10/15/2011, 2:29 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.