NWS Houston/Galveston Talkin' up tropical development this coming week in BOC/Southern Gulf
Posted by
Will_TX on 6/14/2012, 9:51 pm
If nothing else a lot of tropical weather will abound...hopin' for the nice rain. Yard is starting to look stressed, even though we have been watering....there is nothing like the ph that rain water does for our yards and gardens. Anyways, trying to monitor possible tropical weather since I am on the storm Ride-out team once again.
FXUS64 KHGX 150038
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
738 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012
.AVIATION...
WHILE PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTN HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS PREV-
IOUSLY THOUGHT STILL NOT READY TO SHUT DOWN THIS POSSIBILITY FOR
TOMORROW AFTN HOWEVER. STILL GOING WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH
THE FCST NOW LEANING TOWARD PERSISTENCE. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTION CURRENTLY
REMAINING OVER THE SABINE REGION. ALTHOUGH RECENT ACARS SOUNDING
DATA SHOWS WEAK CAPPING AT BETWEEN 750-800MB...CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE RIPE FOR LATE AFTERNOON (INTO EVENING) SCATTERED -TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. VERY
HARD TO DISCERN WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM...BUT CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS A STRONGER INLAND PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS HELPED SQUASH ANY SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE.
OVERALL WATER VAPOR CONTENT REMAINS ELEVATED OVER MOST OF THE
PERIOD AND...WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GULF...EASTERLY FLOW STEERING THIS WAVE(S)
TOWARDS OUR COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHERN FA/MARINE LOWER-END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID-JUNE. THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARDS GENERALLY
WEAKER RIDGING...OR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EVENTUALLY FALLING WITHIN A
(HEIGHT) WEAKNESS CHANNEL. THIS MESHES WITH THE IDEA OF BRINGING A
NORTHERN GULF EASTERLY WAVE WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COAST. NAM12 HAS
A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING INTO OUR WATERS SUNDAY. THE
GFS SOLUTION STILL DEVELOPS A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION /WEAK SFC
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
..CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALSO PICKS UP
ON THESE LOWER SFC PRESSURES AND...ALBEIT MORE BROAD AND WEAK...DOES
MOVE THIS FEATURE UP THE MEXICO COAST THROUGH DAY 10. FWIW...THE
NOGAPS ALSO DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
HR 144. ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES TO AN EARLY WEEK SOUTHEAST-TRANSITIONING
-TO-EASTERLY FETCH THAT WILL PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE SOLUTIONS GAIN MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE COMING DAYS THEN EXPECT A BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM
WITHIN A WEEK AND HEIGHTENED SE TX RAIN/ISO STORM PROBABILITIES.
31
MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 93 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 74 91 75 / 20 20 30 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 89 80 89 78 / 20 30 20 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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NWS Houston/Galveston Talkin' up tropical development this coming week in BOC/Southern Gulf - Will_TX, 6/14/2012, 9:51 pm Post A Reply
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