Re: NWS Houston/Galveston Talkin' up tropical development this coming week in BOC/Southern Gulf
Posted by
Gianmarc on 6/15/2012, 7:01 am
NWS Dallas/Ft. Worth also has been talking this up for days, including this morning . . .
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BY THURSDAY...MODELS START
TO DIVERGE. THE GFS NOW TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON A MUCH
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND RECURVES IT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND SHUNTS IT WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT...THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIODS WILL BE WET BUT SINCE THIS
IS A NEW WRINKLE I WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND ADD NO POPS TO
THE FORECAST. IF THE ECMWF STARTS TO AGREE WITH THAT TRACK...THE
LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDING POPS LATE NEXT WEEK. |
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