Re: kind of went "poof"
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/22/2012, 10:44 pm
Now that it appears we have a recognizable center, recon tomorrow should give the models a better clue. Trough, high, or stall. Hopefully some data over the central Gulf can help. Plus, it should be better organized by then so the models can have a better idea of its structure. It looks like it is starting to get better organized tonight, but often it is hard to tell.

The system does look a bit too large at the moment to strengthen too quickly, but if it were to head toward Texas, it does have time. 5 to 6 days is a lot of time. (Going with the timing of that model) Looks like like the CMC wanted to make it a cat 1 for the June 22nd 12Z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.cmc.2012062212.east_coast.single.png
Link does not update, main site here:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
Another site for Canadian:
http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&lang=en
Certainly possible if it headed to Texas.

If this thing ends up being large, development will be slower. I'm not even looking too much at the models until tomorrow afternoon. We will know so much more then.

Always fun to know what the NHC might think (experimental and not updated after every model run):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/index.php?large&basin=nh2&parm=pmsl#contents
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kind of went "poof" - cypresstx, 6/22/2012, 5:33 pm
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