Re: kind of went "poof"
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/22/2012, 11:18 pm
When a lot of the ensemble members go in opposite directions, you have a lot of uncertainty. I guess they are not as opposite as they were, but I have no clue at this point. I can't judge a model for being good or bad right now because when you don't have good data to put into the model, or at least enough info, how can you blame the model? Are the models initializing things correctly? Some dropsondes over the Gulf will be nice. What about storm size? Strength? Where is the center position? Too many questions.



On IR it is spinning about where I have the circle. Without visible though, not sure if it really is east of where the 6/23 0Z best track position estimate was. Where the center is will be huge. Any wobble one way or the other could have a drastic change on the track.

I'm making no guessing on the track of this one. Too much uncertainty. This time tomorrow though I think we will have Debby and the 0Z models tomorrow night should have some good info for the track. Maybe then the models will have a better handle on things and will have more of a consensus.
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kind of went "poof" - cypresstx, 6/22/2012, 5:33 pm
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