Re: Very surprised by NHC track
Posted by Gianmarc on 6/24/2012, 3:17 pm
Come on man, take some personal responsibility. Local forecasts at the time the NHC released its initial Debby discussion called for significant rainfall in your area and clearly indicated that it would be associated with the tropical storm. The NHC's job is to forecast the path of the center of circulation, not the path of the t-storms that get blown away from it by shear.

People are talking of the NHC's Debby forecast as thought they characterized it as chiseled in stone. In fact they have gone out of their way to characterize it in just the opposite fashion--as a low-confidence forecast.

I find the ruthlessness of NHC criticism here today to be so impetuous as to be suspicious.

Here's the Tampa NWS discussion from yesterday afternoon around the same time Debby first earned name status . . .


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE GULF...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
FORECAST IS STILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS
ARE STILL VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY LIFTING THE LOW NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...THIS WILL KEEP NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY SE/S AND GUSTY...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INCREASING AND SWELLS COMING IN FROM THE SW...WILL ALSO
RAISE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA
BEACHES FROM PINELLAS SOUTH. THESE WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THERE IS STILL A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN THE EASTWARD
TRACK OF THE GFS...THE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND THE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THE ECMWF. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...KEEPING THE SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE LESS SKY
COVER...THOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS GOING FROM THE MID 80S SUNDAY TO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF...I HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE
EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. WITH THIS IN MIND...BASICALLY
USED A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY AND JUST
THE ECMWF THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING WELL TO THE WEST...DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST 50
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEATING.
90
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Very surprised by NHC track - HurricaneBayUSA, 6/23/2012, 7:32 pm
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