800PM EST MODEL RUNS OUT
Posted by LawKat on 8/22/2012, 9:06 pm
And oh my, the westward trends continue.

UKMET is the farthest east, with a landfall somewhere near West Palm Beach or Miami.

EURO has landfall near Biloxi, MS.

GFS rides the Florida west into the big bend.

A plethora of models are in between those areas.



You can take two schools of thought.  The first school says, "hey, I see the trough and it isn't moving but Isaac is", so he should catch a ride NW on it, and hit Florida perpendicular down its peninsula length.

The second school says the trough is eroding somewhat and the high has just enough kick to it to keep Isaac WNW for longer than anticipated and that puts Ft. Myers, Tampa, Panama City, Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, and New Orleans in play.

I am in between these two schools of thought.  I think Charley and Ivan are fair analogs to me.  Not for strength but general location and direction.  Charley and Ivan found weaknesses in their respective ridges, with Ivan taking a hook and hitting Gulf Shores, AL; and Charley taking a hook into Punta Gorda, FL.

I think Isaac makes the GOMEX but Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica present some disruption to storm that is frankly barely a tropical storm.  He may be toast in a day or less, or he may stay south of the islands and gain some organization.  My guess, is much like many recent storms, he stays south of the islands, and rides only a portion of Cuba, hits the Florida Straits and lights up like a firework.

I can easily see a Cat 3/4 making a turn into near Tampa or just south of Tampa, but I can also see a a storm degenerate into an open wave by tomorrow night.

He's going to have to make it to Saturday before anybody knows what he can do.
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800PM EST MODEL RUNS OUT - LawKat, 8/22/2012, 9:06 pm
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