Re: 12Z Euro still west
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/23/2012, 7:17 am
I think the only chance this thing has to even remotely approximate Ivan's intensity is if its core survives its impending wrestling match the the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. Those Florida Straits and eastern GOMEX waters are awfully warm. But seeing the trouble Isaac has had consolidating a center over hot open water, I am very skeptical.

I recall everyone expecting Gustav and Ike both to rapidly intensify when they emerged over the GOMEX, and neither of them did any such thing. And that was despite the fact the Gustav passed over a boiling hot loop current in the GOMEX. Ike, despite its pressure plunging to 944 mb, never reached wind speeds higher than 110mph during its time in the GOMEX, even though previously it had been a cat 4.

So I think this system has a long way to go before we start invoking the names of monsters like Ivan. It's really struggling to get its act together and recent history demonstrates that storms cannot always be assumed to ramp up over the GOMEX just because the water is boiling hot there right now. The upper levels, and the dynamics of the storms inner core, also have to cooperate.
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12Z Euro still west - Old Style, 8/22/2012, 3:22 pm
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