Re: I've been waiting for this one: Bill's Blog: Isaac In-Depth
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/24/2012, 12:59 am
| The cone is one thing people should really know more about. Over the past 5 years, 1/3 of the time the center ends up outside of the error circle for a particular forecast position. That is the very definition of each error circle. You take the nautical mile value in that graph I linked for each forecast position and draw a circle, with that nautical mile radius, around that forecast point. Over the past 5 years, for each forecast hour, 2/3rds of the time it was inside the circle for that forecast hour, but one third of the time it was not. Then you connect all those circles with sweeping lines to make the cone. So, up to 1/3 of the time the storm may be outside the cone, though the NHC over time usually does better each year. Additionally, it would be somewhat less than that as even if the storm is outside of the error circle for a particular point, it could still be inside the entire cone. (If it were significantly left or right of the track, then it could be outside the cone.) Every time someone presents the cone as the possibility of where it will go, I rarely ever hear any mention of the possibility of it going outside the cone, but I suppose it is hard to explain it. |
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