Re: Wanted some additional Observastions
Posted by
Jake on 8/26/2012, 11:47 am
The cyclone should continue to struggle and here's a few extra reasons. There's a low-mid level trough which extends WSW from the center, this is hindering surface inflow fon the S-SW side of the center an issue that began over 36hrs ago. Energy / divergence is being extended away from the core and close visible imagery clearly shows the S-SW side void of low level strato-cumulus and any convective banding. All banding is focused well north and east of the center.
Second problem is outflow being restricted on the W -SW quad. In addition, upper data indicates easterly shear over the center over 20kts. As you mentioned the upper high is centered well SE of the core and this combined with the mid level trough are forcing southerly shear ahead of the system. Not well ventilated.
Third problem is dry air across the NW caribbean (See link) shows this well and the poor outflow pattern.
Lastly, the center is strictly working on High OHC, partial inflow mostly from the N-E and baroclinic dynamics.
http://hokukea.soest.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=wv&domain=bah&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash
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Gianmarc,
8/26/2012, 9:57 am Post A Reply
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