Leslie And The Northern Leewards
Posted by
Jake on 9/1/2012, 12:31 am
The cyclone has a well structured cloud pattern on sat images tonight, however the center is on the northern portion of the mesoscale convection complex. Very cold cloud tops indicate strong convection with Leslie in excess of -80c.
The upper air environment is favorable for gradaul strengthening with a well established outflow pattern overall. Some NE shear is not allowing convection to form around the center and strengthen the inner. And this was a simular issue with Isaac throughout most of his life cycle.
Although none of the guidance takes the core over the northern leewards, looking at the upper air data from the northern leewards winds are easterly through 500mb. In addition, the break in the ridge has been pushing west as Kirk has moved north enough for the high north of Leslie to build west and is causing the increase in forward speed to 21mph from 18-16mph earlier today. A longer WNW motion could result. Lastly, would not be surprised if a more southern reform ation occurs tonight with the current burst and weak inner core. I see the threat increasing and possible warning will likely issued on Saturday as the core would be roughly 200 miles away by this time tomorrow. See link below!!!
http://hokukea.soest.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=wv&domain=cta&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash |
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Leslie And The Northern Leewards - Jake, 9/1/2012, 12:31 am Post A Reply
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