Narelle update, it looks like it will remain at sea...
Posted by hanna on 1/11/2013, 1:57 pm
but the effects will be felt as they have been on the coast.





The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth early Saturday, then extend south to Cape Cuvier later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Denham and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark early Saturday morning and again Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Name:  Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle

Details:
  Time (WST)  Intensity Category  Latitude (decimal deg.)  Longitude (decimal deg.)  Estimated Position

Accuracy (km)
0hr  11 pm January 11    4   18.3S  112.3E  35
+6hr    5 am January 12  4   18.9S  111.9E  60
+12hr  11 am January 12 4   19.5S  111.5E  80
+18hr   5 pm January 12  4   20.1S  111.2E  105
+24hr  11 pm January 12  4   20.6S  110.9E  130
+36hr  11 am January 13  4   21.7S  110.1E  165
+48hr  11 pm January 13  3   23.1S  109.5E  200

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday





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The So. Hem invest now 08S.NARELLE will become a monster - hanna, 1/8/2013, 7:22 pm
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