| Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06E/06E_floater.html Wider view showing Hawaii and Flossie: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/cpac.html Track: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/latest_w.php?stormid=EP062013 (although site is very slow to load right now) WTPA31 PHFO 280232 TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013 500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE STATE OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 143.2W ABOUT 775 MI E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *HAWAII COUNTY *MAUI COUNTY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.2 WEST. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING OVER HAWAII COUNTY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY. WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURF...LARGE SURF WILL IMPACT EAST FACING SHORES POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LARGEST SURF EXPECTED ON MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST. $$ FORECASTER BURKE WTPA41 PHFO 280232 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013 500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF FLOSSIE ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS AND SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOSSIE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH ALL INTENSITY MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH WHICH HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.0N 143.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 19.4N 145.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.8N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 19.9N 152.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 19.9N 155.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 19.9N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 20.0N 167.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BURKE |