| WTPA31 PHFO 280903 TCPCP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013 1100 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013 ...FLOSSIE CONTINUES AS A THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 145.2W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... *HAWAII COUNTY *MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR *OAHU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU NWS FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.2 WEST. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE WILL PASS NEAR OR CLOSE TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ON MONDAY...AND SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING IN HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES...AND ARE POSSIBLE ON OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING OVER HAWAII COUNTY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...DANGEROUSLY LARGE SURF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING SHORES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LARGEST SURF EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM HST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD WTPA41 PHFO 280849 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013 1100 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013 CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATING THAT FLOSSIE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 50 KT... WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SSTS WARM SOMEWHAT ALONG FLOSSIE/S PROJECTED PATH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLOSSIE ENTERING AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE ALOFT JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST...THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS THEREAFTER...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 120 HOURS...WHICH IS LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FLOSSIE/S FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS IT DISTANCES ITSELF FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORCE FLOSSIE TOWARD DUE WEST...AND NEARLY ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AROUND MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. WITH PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INCREASING FOR OAHU...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.4N 145.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 19.8N 147.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.0N 151.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 20.0N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 20.1N 157.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 20.4N 164.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 20.5N 171.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD |