disco
Posted by Fred on 8/23/2013, 9:34 am
ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

LATEST RECON AT 0543 UTC INITIALLY INDICATED A PRESSURE OF 947 MB
THEN LATER THE DROPWINSONDE REVEALED 951 MB.  THE NEXT RECON WILL
NOT BE IN THE AREA UNTIL 1200 UTC.  THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN 105
KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND PLACES EMPHASIS ON BAM DEEP AND ON VICBAR.  SINCE THE
DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE BUILDS AND RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD... WE MAY
HAVE TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HRD EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL...SHIPS92... PREDICTS
MARKED STRENGTHENING WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE GULF STREAM.
CERTAINLY ANDREW CAN PICK ALOT OF ENERGY THEN AND WE SEE NOTHING TO
OFFSET THAT.  THUS... WE WILL GO WITH 115 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL...
POSSIBLY STRONGER.

GERRISH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     23/0900Z 25.5N  73.4W   105 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.4N  75.6W   110 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  78.8W   115 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 25.8N  81.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 26.6N  84.6W    90 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  89.0W    95 KTS






ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT PLANE CONTINUES TO REPORT LOWER
PRESSURE...DOWN TO 930 MB.  ANDREW IS UPGRADED TO A CAT 4 HURRICANE
ON THIS ADVISORY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SMALL EYE...AND WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL...BUT
THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A CAT 4 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL
ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST.  THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
ONE CATEGORY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT COULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14.  NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND
A RIDGE CONTINUING TO THE NORTH OF ANDREW.  THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY AT THE
LONGER TIME PERIODS.  BAM MODELS ARE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR OFFICIAL
TRACK AND NHC90 IS TO THE LEFT OF OUR OFFICIAL TRACK AT THE LONGER
TIME PERIODS.

MAYFIELD


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     23/1500Z 25.4N  75.0W   115 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 25.4N  77.3W   120 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 25.5N  80.3W   120 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 26.1N  83.3W   100 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 26.9N  86.2W   105 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 28.5N  91.0W   110 KTS














ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

THE LAST RECON REPORTED 923 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THE DEEPENING HAS
SLOWED OR MAYBE STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING.  THE 8 NMI DIAMETER EYE
WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO MAINTAIN AND WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST
COAST.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM
GULF STREAM...WE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM GETS WEAKENED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  ANDREW IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN ONE SAFFIR/ SIMPSON CATEGORY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...BUT
WILL STILL EMERGE AS A STRONG HURRICANE IN THE GULF WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING AGAIN POSSIBLE.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/14.  THE NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE 500
MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  THE RIDGE THEN ERODES SOME BUT
REMAINS NORTH OF ANDREW.  THEREFORE...WE ARE SIMPLY UPDATING OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE NW MOTION NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST.  CURRENT TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LAYER BAM THROUGH 48 HOURS.

MAYFIELD


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     23/2100Z 25.4N  76.5W   130 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  78.8W   130 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 25.9N  81.8W   110 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 26.6N  84.7W   110 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 27.3N  87.5W   115 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 29.0N  93.0W   115 KTS









ZCZC MIATCDAT4
TTAA00 KNHC 240321 COR
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992


...CORRECTED TO SHOW NEWER RECON PRESSURE OF 937 MB...


THERE ARE NO SIGNIFIGANT CHANGES TO REPORT IN EITHER THE TRACK OR
INTENSITY OF ANDREW.  HOWEVER...MINOR STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION IS
UNDERWAY IN THE CORE REGION WITH RECON CONTINUING TO REPORT A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  THIS DEVELOPMENT COINCIDES WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE INTERIOR EYEWALL...AND SO THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE...TO 120 KT.  THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST RECON FIX OF 937 MB.  NEVERTHELESS...THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING SOON OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS SO
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND SOME RESTRENGHTENING
REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS COURSE.
LANDFALL IN THE MIAMI AREA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AROUND 1200 UTC
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.  THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE IN ITS TRANSIT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 72
HOUR POSITION IS THE SAME AS BEFORE.

NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS REPORTED SUSTAINED 85 MPH WINDS WITH GUST TO
105 MPH NEAR 0030 UTC.

IN COORDINATION WITH NSSFC...A STATEMENT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORIES.

LAND BASED RADAR FIXES SHOW THE EYE NOW...SO SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY 2 HOURS.

RAPPAPORT/GERRISH/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     24/0300Z 25.4N  78.1W   120 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 25.4N  80.3W   120 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 25.8N  83.2W   105 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 26.4N  85.7W   105 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 27.1N  88.2W   110 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 29.0N  93.0W   110 KTS


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Hurricane Andrew, NHC advisories 8/23/92, the day before - Fred, 8/23/2013, 9:27 am
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