disco
Posted by
Fred on 8/23/2013, 9:34 am
ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992 LATEST RECON AT 0543 UTC INITIALLY INDICATED A PRESSURE OF 947 MB THEN LATER THE DROPWINSONDE REVEALED 951 MB. THE NEXT RECON WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA UNTIL 1200 UTC. THUS...WE WILL MAINTAIN 105 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND PLACES EMPHASIS ON BAM DEEP AND ON VICBAR. SINCE THE DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE BUILDS AND RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD... WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE HRD EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL...SHIPS92... PREDICTS MARKED STRENGTHENING WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE GULF STREAM. CERTAINLY ANDREW CAN PICK ALOT OF ENERGY THEN AND WE SEE NOTHING TO OFFSET THAT. THUS... WE WILL GO WITH 115 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL... POSSIBLY STRONGER.
GERRISH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.5N 73.4W 105 KTS 12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.4N 75.6W 110 KTS 24HR VT 24/0600Z 25.5N 78.8W 115 KTS 36HR VT 24/1800Z 25.8N 81.8W 85 KTS 48HR VT 25/0600Z 26.6N 84.6W 90 KTS 72HR VT 26/0600Z 28.5N 89.0W 95 KTS
ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT PLANE CONTINUES TO REPORT LOWER PRESSURE...DOWN TO 930 MB. ANDREW IS UPGRADED TO A CAT 4 HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SMALL EYE...AND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A CAT 4 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ONE CATEGORY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT COULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND A RIDGE CONTINUING TO THE NORTH OF ANDREW. THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY AT THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. BAM MODELS ARE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR OFFICIAL TRACK AND NHC90 IS TO THE LEFT OF OUR OFFICIAL TRACK AT THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 25.4N 75.0W 115 KTS 12HR VT 24/0000Z 25.4N 77.3W 120 KTS 24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.5N 80.3W 120 KTS 36HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 83.3W 100 KTS 48HR VT 25/1200Z 26.9N 86.2W 105 KTS 72HR VT 26/1200Z 28.5N 91.0W 110 KTS
ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992 THE LAST RECON REPORTED 923 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THE DEEPENING HAS SLOWED OR MAYBE STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE 8 NMI DIAMETER EYE WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO MAINTAIN AND WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM...WE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS WEAKENED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANDREW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONE SAFFIR/ SIMPSON CATEGORY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...BUT WILL STILL EMERGE AS A STRONG HURRICANE IN THE GULF WITH SOME STRENGTHENING AGAIN POSSIBLE. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/14. THE NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE THEN ERODES SOME BUT REMAINS NORTH OF ANDREW. THEREFORE...WE ARE SIMPLY UPDATING OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE NW MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. CURRENT TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM THROUGH 48 HOURS. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.4N 76.5W 130 KTS 12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.5N 78.8W 130 KTS 24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.9N 81.8W 110 KTS 36HR VT 25/0600Z 26.6N 84.7W 110 KTS 48HR VT 25/1800Z 27.3N 87.5W 115 KTS 72HR VT 26/1800Z 29.0N 93.0W 115 KTS
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 TTAA00 KNHC 240321 COR ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992
...CORRECTED TO SHOW NEWER RECON PRESSURE OF 937 MB...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFIGANT CHANGES TO REPORT IN EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY OF ANDREW. HOWEVER...MINOR STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION IS UNDERWAY IN THE CORE REGION WITH RECON CONTINUING TO REPORT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THIS DEVELOPMENT COINCIDES WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE INTERIOR EYEWALL...AND SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE...TO 120 KT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST RECON FIX OF 937 MB. NEVERTHELESS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING SOON OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND SOME RESTRENGHTENING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS COURSE. LANDFALL IN THE MIAMI AREA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AROUND 1200 UTC IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A LITTLE IN ITS TRANSIT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 72 HOUR POSITION IS THE SAME AS BEFORE.
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS REPORTED SUSTAINED 85 MPH WINDS WITH GUST TO 105 MPH NEAR 0030 UTC.
IN COORDINATION WITH NSSFC...A STATEMENT ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORIES.
LAND BASED RADAR FIXES SHOW THE EYE NOW...SO SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED EVERY 2 HOURS.
RAPPAPORT/GERRISH/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 25.4N 78.1W 120 KTS 12HR VT 24/1200Z 25.4N 80.3W 120 KTS 24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.8N 83.2W 105 KTS 36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.4N 85.7W 105 KTS 48HR VT 26/0000Z 27.1N 88.2W 110 KTS 72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 93.0W 110 KTS
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In this thread:
Hurricane Andrew, NHC advisories 8/23/92, the day before -
Fred,
8/23/2013, 9:27 am- Re: Hurricane Andrew, NHC advisories 8/23/92, the day before - canetrakker, 8/23/2013, 12:58 pm
- Re: Hurricane Andrew, NHC advisories 8/23/92, the day before - Shalista, 8/23/2013, 9:57 am
- disco - Fred, 8/23/2013, 9:34 am
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