Re: Chris
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/10/2013, 1:24 am
To get that folder I just right click on any full size image and go to the image URL by clicking on the following in the menu that pops up:

Mozilla Firefox: "View Image"
Google Chrome: "Open image in new tab"

Then in the address bar remove everything at the end of the URL to the first "/".

For example, I clicked on a thumbnail of an IR satellite image of Humberto on NRL's main page:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

That took me to a page with a large satellite image where I then right clicked and visited the image URL.

In the address bar I have

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/ATL/09L.HUMBERTO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20130910.0300.msg3.x.ir1km_bw.09LHUMBERTO.50kts-1000mb-138N-257W.100pc.jpg

I remove the noted part as that is the file name of the image:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/ATL/09L.HUMBERTO/ir/geo/1km_bw/20130910.0300.msg3.x.ir1km_bw.09LHUMBERTO.50kts-1000mb-138N-257W.100pc.jpg

And I am left with the image directory:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/ATL/09L.HUMBERTO/ir/geo/1km_bw/

Then click enter to visit it.

---

As for the track, keep in mind that track is the National Hurricane Center's track, it is simply on the Navy's website. NRL generates track data for storms in the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility (Atlantic and East Pacific).

That image is created from this text product here for Humberto:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/
Noted what I pasted at the end of this post. The first line says:

"TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6"

If you look at NRL's image it says in the top right corner it currently says:

"Tropical Storm Humberto (09L) Warning #6"

That "#6" matches the NHC forecast advisory below which has this:

"TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6"

The forecast track, forecast wind speed and forecast wind field call from the NHC.

One reason why there may seem to be more points of a certain type, in part, is due to more positions over the period of time it is expected to be a hurricane.

When the NHC makes a forecast they do so at various positions. It is easiest to post the section in the NHC's discussion that has it for simplicity:

"FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 13.9N  25.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 14.4N  27.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 15.4N  28.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 16.9N  28.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  12/0000Z 19.1N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  13/0000Z 23.0N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  14/0000Z 25.2N  32.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 26.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH"

The NHC, for the first 48 hours does 12 hour forecast positions. After that they do 24 hour positions. So, there are twice as many positions per day, two, in the first 48 hours, than in the period after. So if something is supposed to be a hurricane over a day in the first 48 hours, you would have two hurricane points per day. After 48 hours, if it is to be a hurricane, you would have just one hurricane point for the day. So if the forecast was exactly the same and the period it is to become a hurricane moves into the 48 hour window from now, you start to get more hurricane points.

Just a little side note about things changing sometimes when they are not actually changing...

Forecasts are released every 6 hours, and being that forecast points after 48 hours are 24 hours apart, numbers can start to change even if the forecast has remained exactly the same. I'll do a made up example for something that is supposed to peak in intensity 96 hours from now, lets say at 100 mph. To make it simplistic, after 12 hours it goes up by 10 mph every 12 hours at the exact same rate.

INIT  30mph
12H  30mph
24H  40mph
36H  50mph
48H  60mph
72H  80mph
96H  100mph
120H  80mph

12 hours later lets say the forecast has not changed at all and is now this:

INIT  30mph
12H  40mph
24H  50mph
36H  60mph
48H  70mph
72H  90mph
96H  90mph
120H  70mph

Look what happened in this particular case. We actually lost a hurricane point. And, it is no longer forecast to be 100mph. However, in reality the forecast did not change. It might have but you don't know because the 100mph would be at 84 hours, which has no point. In a case like this, the NHC sometimes says, if it is supposed to be at landfall usually, that the storm could be stronger between the forecast points and strengthen up until landfall. If the storm is curving, they might mention it could get closer than it appears as well. In this case above the 60 hour and 108 hour positions are when it could be a hurricane but that is not noted.

And of course often the forecast changes a little bit sometimes. You kind of have to read the discussion to determine whether anything has changed in the NHC's mind. If nothing has, they often say that just like they do when something has changed.





000
WTNT24 KNHC 100246
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  25.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  25.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  25.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.4N  27.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.4N  28.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.9N  28.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.1N  29.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.0N  30.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.2N  32.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.0N  36.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  25.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
101
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09L.HUMBERTO - hanna, 9/9/2013, 8:10 am
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