| A lot going on down there. There was Boris, but he is officially gone. Now this. But the question is whether this, or something else, possibly from a part of this, is what could come across Florida in about a week. (GFS) Shear is on the high side, and forecast to remain that way for awhile, but it could still spin up down there into something. Storms do find a way in that bay. SHIPS intensity output, showing high shear: * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 06/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 21 22 21 20 20 19 23 26 28 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 26 26 27 27 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 22 25 26 27 27 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 27 25 24 26 30 29 25 22 17 10 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 0 -2 0 2 4 7 10 10 17 SHEAR DIR 263 280 286 285 289 309 300 306 302 317 294 283 301 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 121 122 122 125 128 135 141 149 157 160 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 108 108 109 112 115 122 126 134 143 148 126 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 11 9 13 10 14 11 14 9 9 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 75 71 68 62 59 51 50 50 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -7 -6 2 7 14 19 31 35 42 57 40 14 200 MB DIV 36 25 17 33 32 12 4 2 -13 5 -4 -8 -10 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 0 -4 2 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 100 115 137 121 96 5 -94 -206 -337 -290 -134 14 188 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.2 21.1 20.6 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.6 94.9 95.3 95.7 96.9 98.2 99.6 101.0 102.4 103.9 105.6 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 11 8 13 13 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 3. 6. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 06/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 06/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 06/05/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) From bottom of this folder: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ Current shear graphic: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time= |