| It has been hit hard in the past and it will again it's only a matter of time. And, I believe Jim says they are more vulnerable in weaker seasons (like some clarification here). While doing some research for a speech I gave in New Orleans I came across a lot of information on the Hurricane of 1848 that was really compelling on the reality of hurricane preparation and education in a city that is so low lying, water everywhere.. lakes... just in ways (but different) its like worrying on parts of Nola that are a bowl. Not saying Tampa is a bowl but would fill up with water like a bowl FAST. Miami could take a bad hit... really bad...especially with all the new construction going on at the water's edge along Biscayne Bay downtown and south of the Miami River... on the river. But in general Biscayne Bay is ...was supposed to be a sort of safety valve. The water flowed in... excited up at the top of the Bay near Bal Harbor/Haulover. A hit in Miami where the water would go up the river would be a problem but no where near as much as straight into Tampa Bay. A strong hurricane hit in 1835 that wiped out all the vegetation quite a ways in.. not miles but with the dollar amount of property along South Bayshore Drive... and the financial district it would be a real OUCH.. Obviously a small, buzz saw, fast intensifying storm just off shore like Andrew or the Labor Day Storm coming in at Flagler Street is a worst case scenario for both dollar amount and density of the population that would make Andrew pale in comparison. Andrew went across more real estate that was empty, farms, nurseries, bay mangroves, etc.........than any other path across the Miami Dade area. And, to bring this back to Cristina... she went from a Cat 1 to Cat 5 in record time and the models that have the NHC stamp of approval did not really see it coming. As I understand it ... there are some experimental models that did see it coming (tho not to THAT degree) but they are not yet part of the approved modes (keeping this simple to read for most people here... ) suffice it to say we cannot say "oh well the models don't handle small cyclones well" because some of our worst hurricanes have been on the small side. And, she is far from being a "midget cyclone" so don't think that is the real answer. I think the favorite models didn't see it coming so no one would believe it without model confirmation. That said...i love the models. That said the NHC rocks and does a spot on job almost all the time. But as it has been pointed out time and again... sadly most busted weather forecasts are on the big ones. I think Kocin said that once and he was so so right. Keep watching.. thanks for the links Chris. Again.. this is not wishcasting a Tampa Bay Hurricane. It's simply a fact that it will happen one day. Savannah will be hit again one day and Tybee Island will be under water again too. eventually. A good read, one of many online. Short read... imagine that sort of storm in Tampa Bay. Unless we can get to a point before it happens where we can Star Trek like transport people.. an entire population .. it will be terrible. Katrinaish terrible in it's own way. http://www.theledger.com/article/20120529/COLUMNISTS0404/205295000?p=1&tc=pg |