Re: GFS still continues to try to develop something in the western Carib
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 6/13/2014, 8:11 pm
When the GFS keeps developing something for what seems like a month at this point, I stop paying attention. I don't know what's wrong with the model in the longer range so far this year down there. I've never seen it so outrageously off in the long term like this so consistently. (Sure its sometimes Florida and sometimes Texas, but it starts in about the same place.) Maybe there were changes made to it, I just don't know. Long range has always been out there, you have to look for multiple run support and more importantly, multiple model support. But the GFS just lost all credibility to me for now in the long range for anything it tries to develop in the western Carib. If multiple models show something consistently and it is more in the medium range, then I'll pay more attention. But even then, I'll believe the GFS accurately forming something in the western Carib once there actually is something spinning there.
With that said, one of these runs it might be right. It's that time of year for something like it shows to happen. But since it has been at it for many dozen runs, I don't give it credit if it finally gets it right. |
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