| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144815.shtml?5day#contents SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 63.7W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands has developed a large area of deep convection in a long curved band north and west of the center. First-light visible satellite imagery also indicates that the low-level center of the low has become better defined since yesterday. Satellite classifications are a subtropical 1.5 from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, and the system's involvement with a nearby upper-level low and roughly 100 n mi radius of maximum winds also argue for a subtropical designation. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the depression this afternoon to better assess its intensity and structure. The protective cover of the nearby upper low will provide a relatively low vertical wind shear environment in the short term, with the cyclone over warm sea surface temperatures of 28- 29 deg C. The model guidance indicates that the depression should become embedded in increasing southerly vertical shear east of the same upper-level trough after 24 hours, so the system has a short window for intensification or transformation into a tropical cyclone. Global models depict the cyclone becoming absorbed by a frontal zone over the north-central Atlantic before 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical-dynamical guidance. The depression is moving northwestward or 320/09 around the southwestern perhiphery of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The deep-layer steering flow around this feature should cause the cyclone to turn northward within 24 hours, after which it will turn northeastward in increasing southwesterly flow at the base of a longwave trough prior to absorption by the front. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA, through- out the period and between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.8N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 25.1N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 26.8N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.4N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 31.5N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |