5am EDT Wed. / 11pm HST Tue.: Hurricane watch may be required later on Wednesday
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/15/2014, 5:26 am
Satellite floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02C/02C_floater.html Wider views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014 1100 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014 ANA REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE 0507Z SSMIS AND A 0643Z AMSU PLATFORMS AVAILABLE ON THE FNMOC/NRL WEB SITES INDICATE THE LLCC MAY BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 10 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR ANA ARE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...WHILE THE SAB ESTIMATE IS 4.0/65 KT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND INTENSE LIGHTNING OBSERVED NEAR THE INNER CORE OF ANA...THE INTENSITY IS BEING NUDGED UP TO 60 KT TOWARD THE SAB ESTIMATE AS A COMPROMISE. STRONG TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR 275 DEGREES...AT 8 KT. ANA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED ALONG THIS COURSE BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A MINOR SHIFT TO THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT 24 AND 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER ANA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE FACT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KT BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW THAT ANA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. INSTEAD...ANA WILL BE IN MINIMAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE ON ANA.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH ANA POTENTIALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...THE CIRA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK SHOW THE VALUE WILL RAMP UP DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF OCEAN WARMTH AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM AS ITS WINDS ARE INCREASING. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. ALSO...THERE MAY BE SOME INTERRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IF IT INTERACTS WITH ANY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 14.1N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.3N 147.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 15.6N 152.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 155.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 19.9N 157.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 21.6N 158.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER HOUSTON |
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