Re: NHC Upgrade to TD4
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/18/2015, 9:16 pm
Another view of the really long term GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&xpos=0&ypos=325
It does keep it weak, and the SHIPS intensity forecast continues to increase. Until the models get a better handle on it, most everywhere is possible still. Through 5 days shear is forecast to remain low, but it is still not yet at/near the islands. Not sure about later. I don't know how different the shallow and deep steering will be later, but for now, not really putting any weight on such a long term forecast from the GFS. (I'll be brave and side with the NHC.) If all models went out so far, doom and gloom would be widespread. Everywhere would be panicked anytime a few long term models were over an area. Because early on, eventually everyone would be in the crosshairs, from run to run, a couple weeks out.

The planes are not even being mentioned yet. It has to get close enough to come into where they can fly out to, if it does continue to look like the Lesser Antilles could be impacted, and then we'll get some recon data too. A G-IV flight would be nice for the models. But we're not even to the point where they are mentioning flights could start several days out. It might be a day or two before they mention the possibility of flights in the recon plan of the day. It's just that far out still.

SHIPS intensity and shear forecast (August 18th, 8pm EDT):

                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  DANNY       AL042015  08/19/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    51    58    64    70    79    84    90    92    93    91    90    91
V (KT) LAND       45    51    58    64    70    79    84    90    92    93    91    90    91
V (KT) LGE mod    45    52    59    66    73    85    94    97    98    96    96    95    96
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     6     7     9     7     5     8     4     7     4     8     4     4
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     9     2     1     0     0    -2    -5    -4    -5    -4    -3    -4    -3
SHEAR DIR        342    44    44    68    87    74   138   136   144   151   154   184   161
SST (C)         28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  27.9  27.5  27.3  27.3  27.3  27.3  27.5  27.8
POT. INT. (KT)   138   137   137   137   137   134   129   127   127   128   128   131   135
ADJ. POT. INT.   137   134   133   132   132   129   124   121   122   123   125   128   133
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     6     7     7     8     8     9     9    10
700-500 MB RH     64    66    67    67    67    57    53    49    48    46    43    40    39
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     9    10    11    12    12    12    14    14    15    13    14    13
850 MB ENV VOR    -3    -1     0     3    17    16    11    21    21    31    31    31    33
200 MB DIV       107   106    75    63    61    12    -6   -16     4     2    -7   -13     4
700-850 TADV     -15   -13   -11    -7    -4    -1     1     0     0     3    -2     1    -4
LAND (KM)       1617  1553  1492  1442  1396  1321  1270  1205  1126  1062   985   896   684
LAT (DEG N)     11.1  11.3  11.5  11.7  11.9  12.3  12.9  13.3  13.6  13.9  14.1  14.4  14.8
LONG(DEG W)     38.3  39.1  39.9  40.6  41.3  42.6  44.0  45.5  47.1  48.9  51.1  53.6  56.2
STM SPEED (KT)    10     8     8     7     7     7     8     8     8    10    12    12    13
HEAT CONTENT      14    10     7     7     7     7     7    14    25    15    16    21    36

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  3
 T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  647  (MEAN=624)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.6 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
 SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  12.  13.  13.  14.  14.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  12.  13.  14.  14.  15.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   7.   8.   9.   8.   8.   7.   7.
 PERSISTENCE            3.   5.   6.   7.   6.   6.   6.   5.   3.   1.   0.  -1.
 200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9.
 700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   4.   4.   4.   2.   2.   1.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           6.  13.  19.  25.  34.  39.  45.  47.  48.  46.  45.  46.

  ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY      08/19/15  00 UTC **
          ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  15.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.0 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  10.6 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  88.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   9.0 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :  82.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:  82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    48% is   4.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    38% is   5.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    24% is   5.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    15% is   4.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY      08/19/15  00 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY      08/19/2015  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       4(  4)       7( 11)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       1(  1)       2(  3)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

SHIP: V (KT) NO LAND
DSHP: V (KT) LAND
LGEM: V (KT) LGE mod

Models on a map:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=04&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1
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NHC Upgrade to TD4 - BobbiStorm, 8/18/2015, 10:39 am
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