I don't know a whole lot about them either really, I spend too much time creating the software to view different things, like models and recon, to really get involved with researching storms.
But this so far is the typical, it could happen of course, but it's still too early.
The next GFS run, stronger, took it over the NE islands and then off into the Atlantic, just east of Bermuda.
The storm is still getting organized and is so far out from land recon is not happening for awhile. For the models, the high altitude NOAA G-IV sampling the environment around the storm is really nice to get a better idea of where it is going. But that might only occur later if the storm is a threat.
The model runs for the next several days are not going to be that great long term in my opinion. For the islands, this is something near term, around five days out. They need to watch carefully of course. But looking past that to where it could go next, when the storm is a few days from potentially being around the islands, then with some recon into the models, we might start to get a little better idea. But even then, it could be a week out or more from potentially impacting the mainland US.
It's always good to keep in mind the error cone. For the day five position you draw a circle, based on the NHC position error over the past five years. (2010-2014) The current error radii is 225 nautical miles for day 5. Two thirds of the time over the past 5 years, the storm will be within 225 nautical miles of that last forecast point. However, one third of the time, it will not be. The cone is based on error circles at each forecast point.
More about that:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml
Imagine how big the cone would be if it went beyond five days. (and they are actually working on a seven day cone that could one day be a reality)
Even if the NHC themselves were making a really long term forecast, it would be subject to a whole lot of variation this far out. (and intensity of course is even more difficult) Just having so far, for the most part, satellite data, makes things more difficult. (an occasional buoy or ship) And the NHC is usually going to be better than a single model too.
Swinging from the Florida west coast to east of Bermuda though, that is definitely the kind of stuff you can get with the long term GFS. But thankfully when something is closer to being a threat to a particular area, things get more clear, and people can act accordingly. (Imagine the past when there was little to no warning for some of these storms.) |