CaneTalk: Re: HWRF Model 10/6/16 00UTC, GFS Model 10/6/16 06UTC

Re: HWRF Model 10/6/16 00UTC, GFS Model 10/6/16 06UTC

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/6/2016, 9:33 am

This is one of those instances where I think the models are underestimating it.

Best track at 8am EDT was 130mph. There was a suspect SFMR reading of 147 mph earlier. (10s surface estimate) But then it appeared in the vortex, so perhaps the NHC might consider that at 11am EDT. Another pass shortly.

All the models are too low on the intensity:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=14&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1

152

In this thread:

Matthew at 8am EDT Thursday: 125mph; 940mb; NW at 12 mph - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 7:50 am

9:44am EDT splash by sonde: 939mb, 13 knots of surface wind (n/t) - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 9:58 am
- 939mb vortex - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 10:00 am
  - Re: 939mb vortex - Gianmarc, 10/6/2016, 10:04 am
    - Re: 939mb vortex - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 10:13 am
      - Re: 939mb vortex - Gambit7, 10/6/2016, 10:16 am
        Re: 939mb vortex - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 10:20 am
        Re: 939mb vortex - CX, 10/6/2016, 10:26 am
  - Recon image through 9:51am EDT - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 10:04 am
Re: Matthew at 8am EDT Thursday: 125mph; 940mb; NW at 12 mph - DTB_2009, 10/6/2016, 9:48 am
NHC Audio Podcast from 8 AM - cypresstx, 10/6/2016, 9:43 am
8:17am EDT: 153mph momentary wind 1mb above surface in eyewall as measured by sonde - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 8:50 am
- Location of that sonde - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 8:57 am
High Def Radar - tvsteve, 10/6/2016, 8:44 am
- HWRF Model 10/6/16 00UTC, GFS Model 10/6/16 06UTC - Target, 10/6/2016, 9:20 am
  - Re: HWRF Model 10/6/16 00UTC, GFS Model 10/6/16 06UTC - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 9:33 am
    - Re: HWRF Model 10/6/16 00UTC, GFS Model 10/6/16 06UTC - Gianmarc, 10/6/2016, 10:01 am
    - Re: HWRF Model 10/6/16 00UTC, GFS Model 10/6/16 06UTC - Target, 10/6/2016, 9:51 am
SE Quadrant, 8:14am EDT, 125 mph SFMR - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 8:32 am
Storm slice from about 7:20am EDT center pass when pressure was about 940mb - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 8:14 am

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