Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules

Re: Did some number crunching & northern locations are getting hit more frequently

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 2/24/2017, 10:57 pm

I was looking at some shear charts for the Caribbean since 2000. I don't know how accurate they are and it's hard to tell the time period if you want to compare the shear for a small period of time to compare to when a storm formed in the Carib.

2000 to 2013 (for 2012 and 2013 change the link to the proper year):


To pull up some of 2014 through 2016, use the Internet Archive:*/

Maybe there is simply more shear in the Carib now. I can't tell from the charts though. It has seemed to me that in the past nine years there is often shear, some in central Carib and especially the eastern Carib. The western Carib is where things seem to more often get going. There are exceptions and I don't know about shear historically. (I only started following things in 2004.) It does seem that storms are forming more outside of the Carib lately. Waters are warmer further north and storms can form in more northern locations. Perhaps some other factors are in play too, even on some of the other charts at the links above.

Where usually El Niño might suppress activity north of South America, it almost seems like it is like that more often even when it is not an El Niño.

Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season:

I don't know, do some storms form earlier and then curve away, therefore not entering the Carib? It seems like there is often a lot of waves moving across the Atlantic, then through the Carib and then just go into Central America, sometimes forming in the East Pacific. More typical of El Niño I guess, but it seems like that happens even when it is not. I'm not sure, but I'm only looking over a really short period. How is it changing over many decades? For that I have no clue. Things might be changing and there is not enough years to review to determine if there is a change and if so, why is it changing?


In this thread:

Did some number crunching & northern locations are getting hit more frequently - jimw, 2/21/2017, 2:52 pm

< Return to message board

Post A Reply



Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:

Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.