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Re: Did some number crunching & northern locations are getting hit more frequently

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 2/24/2017, 10:57 pm

I was looking at some shear charts for the Caribbean since 2000. I don't know how accurate they are and it's hard to tell the time period if you want to compare the shear for a small period of time to compare to when a storm formed in the Carib.

2000 to 2013 (for 2012 and 2013 change the link to the proper year):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/

2017:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

To pull up some of 2014 through 2016, use the Internet Archive:
http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Maybe there is simply more shear in the Carib now. I can't tell from the charts though. It has seemed to me that in the past nine years there is often shear, some in central Carib and especially the eastern Carib. The western Carib is where things seem to more often get going. There are exceptions and I don't know about shear historically. (I only started following things in 2004.) It does seem that storms are forming more outside of the Carib lately. Waters are warmer further north and storms can form in more northern locations. Perhaps some other factors are in play too, even on some of the other charts at the links above.

Where usually El Niño might suppress activity north of South America, it almost seems like it is like that more often even when it is not an El Niño.

Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season

I don't know, do some storms form earlier and then curve away, therefore not entering the Carib? It seems like there is often a lot of waves moving across the Atlantic, then through the Carib and then just go into Central America, sometimes forming in the East Pacific. More typical of El Niño I guess, but it seems like that happens even when it is not. I'm not sure, but I'm only looking over a really short period. How is it changing over many decades? For that I have no clue. Things might be changing and there is not enough years to review to determine if there is a change and if so, why is it changing?

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Did some number crunching & northern locations are getting hit more frequently - jimw, 2/21/2017, 2:52 pm

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