| If the core gets organized soon, which on satellite it seems to be, it seems like it could. 11am Wednesday discussion: "Harvey is not well organized at the moment, with an asymmetric cloud pattern and a large radius of maximum wind. The environment, however, is conducive for intensification while Harvey moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters in light-to-moderate shear. The biggest hindrance to intensification in the short term is the poor structure. Thus the NHC forecast will only show a gradual increase in wind speed during the first day, with a more significant intensification after that time. Although not explicitly forecast below, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall after the 48 hour forecast point. This forecast agrees well with the guidance, almost all of which shows a quickly intensifying cyclone approaching the Texas coast." The center seems to be getting better organized looking at satellite. Recon has left. If it starts taking off by this evening, it has a lot of time. SHIPS output: * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 42 50 61 69 76 74 75 73 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 42 50 61 58 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 47 56 57 38 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 9 5 12 7 11 10 15 15 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 1 -3 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 264 222 208 230 247 194 178 183 242 232 257 235 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.1 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 166 171 171 171 160 157 161 157 159 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 149 156 160 153 140 135 134 127 129 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 9 12 8 10 7 10 7 11 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 70 67 65 66 66 66 65 61 58 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 11 11 13 13 17 19 22 20 19 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR 0 13 23 27 14 28 16 22 1 -3 -20 0 11 200 MB DIV 20 18 13 22 21 48 38 39 -2 13 12 54 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 8 3 2 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 232 275 323 396 404 234 123 -16 -142 -191 -156 -131 -131 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 7 8 8 9 8 7 5 1 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 47 58 68 83 40 43 45 19 33 41 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 7. 11. 7. 6. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 31. 39. 46. 44. 45. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.4 92.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.75 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 32.3% 18.9% 9.7% 8.3% 15.4% 34.7% 62.0% Logistic: 6.2% 26.5% 15.9% 3.4% 0.8% 22.4% 45.1% 53.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 4.7% 2.2% Consensus: 4.9% 20.5% 12.0% 4.4% 3.1% 12.8% 28.2% 39.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 42 50 61 58 38 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 46 57 54 34 26 24 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 41 52 49 29 21 19 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 43 40 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT Shear is forecast to be rather low. Increasing heat content with deep, warm SSTs. It's not moving fast any more. There is a 35% chance of 55 knot increase in 48 hours. It will be on land by 72 hours, so that 62% chance of 65kt increase in 72 hours is suspect I would think. I don't know what that is based on, the version of SHIPS that takes land into account or not. I would have thought it would be the one that takes land into account, but I don't know, that doesn't seem likely given that figure. It could take land into account and be going with the storm increasing even more after the 48 hour point and then falling off. Not sure. If the core gets organized later today, wind could be a real problem in addition to the rain, which will be a problem no matter what. "RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning. Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding." |