| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite floaters: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday. The system is forecast to move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Convection associated with the broad area of low pressure located east of the Georgia coast has increased markedly today. Visibile satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls rotating around a mean center, but ASCAT data earlier today showed that the circulation was not yet well-defined. The ASCAT data and buoy observations indicate that the initial intensity is 30 kt, and buoy data suggest the central pressure is around 1007 mb. While the system is expected to remain sheared, it has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm before it becomes baroclinic in about 48 hours. Given that, and the potential for this system to bring tropical storm conditions to the coast from northern South Carolina through North Carolina, advisories are being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. The system is currently moving little in a region of weak steering, but should begin to move slowly northward and then quickly accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the mid-Atlantic states. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the global models keeping the low center near the coast, but as usual there is more uncertainty than usual in the track forecast for a weak/developing system. After the system moves into the western Atlantic, it should continue accelerating east-northeastward ahead of the upper trough through the end of the period. Despite the sheared envirionment, the system should be able to intensify a little via diabatic processes before it intensifies further as it undergoes a more substantial baroclinic intensification at 48 hours and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast follows the intensity consensus through 36 hours and then follows the trend of the global model guidance and guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Although the potential impacts are within 36 hours, given the uncertainty in whether tropical storm force winds will occur on land in northeastern South Caroilna and southeastern North Carolina, south, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas. Note that north of Duck, North Carolina, hazards from this system will be handled with non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/0600Z 31.6N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 28/1800Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 34.1N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 36.6N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1800Z 43.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z 47.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan Models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/ Recon scheduled for tomorrow: NOUS42 KNHC 271825 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0230 PM EDT SUN 27 AUGUST 2017 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUGUST 2017 TCPOD NUMBER.....17-088 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73 A. 28/1730Z A. 29/1130Z,1730Z B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE C. 28/1530Z C. 29/0900Z D. 31.7N 80.2W D. 34.0N 77.0W E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2230Z E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1730Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NEGATIVE 3. REMARKS: A. INVEST MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 27/1800Z CANCELLED BY NHC 27/1245Z. B. MISSION ORIGINALLY TASKED FOR THE 28/1130Z,1730Z FIXES WILL SLIP SIX HOURS AND BECOME FLIGHT ONE ABOVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. |