8pm EDT Sunday: 90% chance of development
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/27/2017, 7:46 pm
It takes getting used to talking about the chances of development when tropical storm watches are already posted.
There's the 90% chance in the Public Advisory and the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.
NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
"Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017
...DISTURBANCE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 80.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
30.9 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is currently
stationary. A slow northward motion is expected overnight and
Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly offshore
of the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday, and then move along
or near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and the North
Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or
Monday. The disturbance is expected to become post-tropical on
Tuesday.
Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to be well organized, but the center of
circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the
definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a
tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007
mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Monday night through Tuesday.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with isolated possible
maximum amounts of 6 inches.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi"
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located inland over southeastern Texas.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Ten, located off the southeast U.S. coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten are issued
under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brennan"
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
I'm not paying attention to off Africa yet. No idea where it might go. |
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