Euro closer to Antilles again
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/2/2017, 3:15 am
It's happening by 120 hours (5 days), so it's worth noting. That's not long range.
0Z runs available...
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&fh=120
The 12Z Euro had backed off a little further from the Antilles. 0Z is back extremely close to them. (certainly impacting the most northern few islands)
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&fh=120
0Z GFS also moved a little closer to them, but GFS remains further away than the Euro as of posting this post.
Parts of the northern Antilles are in the NHC's cone of course:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?cone#contents
11pm AST NHC discussion:
"Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials."
As for beyond 5 days, keep in mind that a NOAA P-3 will be in the storm Sunday. Monday, Air Force recon and importantly, the NOAA G-IV sampling the high altitude environment. The G-IV data often makes things a bit clearer. So by late Monday night, early Tuesday, models might really start coming together better. No matter where you are, it's always good to be prepared for hurricane season. If you didn't at the start of the season, now is a great time just in case: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php |
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