Re: 3-4pm Model Runs - models NOT yet in agreement - TS winds could arrive in Florida as early a
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/4/2017, 5:37 pm
People should keep in mind, if/when we see a turn in the NHC forecast, the dots will be connected with a straight line. The storm doesn't usually move point to point. It will travel in a curve most likely if it turns and a lot of these graphics people show are not likely to demonstrate that well. (Usually the NHC will mention that in their discussion) Plus, the storm is forecast to continue to grow larger. So point to point in the NHC forecast track doesn't show everything.
The turn, if models continue to show it, might coincidentally appear in the NHC forecast perhaps when G-IV data is in the models. Plus, extra balloon launches from various locations in the U.S. This is why I'm glad there isn't a 7 day NHC forecast. It would have reflected earlier model forecasts. Take the 7 day forecast issued from WPC. It shows it around Melbourne. It's too early to show that too widely to people. For people here, we know a lot can change in 7 days. |
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