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11pm AST Fri: Swells from Maria likely to cause dangerous surf & life-threatening rip currents

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/23/2017, 12:21 am

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents


Normal Satellite Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html


GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector 2 floater (centered on storm as of posting):
RAMMB/CIRA SLIDER from Colorado State | RealEarth from SSEC - UW-Madison | College of DuPage






Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and the Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle
launched from the NOAA plane have sampled the eye and the
surroundings of Maria early this evening. An Air Force plane also
arrived and so far has penetrated the eye a couple of times. Based
on the data from these platforms, the maximum winds are still 110 kt
in the eyewall that surrounds a large eye of about 35 n mi in
diameter. There are no reports of a double wind max at this time so
no eyewall replacement cycle is anticipated soon. The current shear
is forecast to decrease, but the hurricane is moving toward a region
with less oceanic heat content. The combination of these two factors
should result in a very gradual decay of the hurricane, and the NHC
forecast keeps Maria as a category 3 at least for one or two more
days.

Satellite and plane fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the
north-northwest or 345 degrees at 8 kt, steered by a subtropical
ridge to the east of the hurricane. The ridge is forecast to amplify
westward during the next few days, but it is not expected to be
strong enough to block the northward motion of the hurricane. It
will however, force the hurricane to move slowly. Tonight's guidance
continues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days, and the
NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope. After that
time, the GFS and EMWF are once again in competition, with the GFS
defining the western edge of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF the
eastern one. This makes the forecast a little  more uncertain.
The NHC forecast recurves Maria over the open Atlantic which is the
solution of the HFIP corrected consensus and the multi-model
consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of
the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf
and life-threatening rip currents for the next several days.

3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and
Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine
what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.

4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in
the United States, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 24.1N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 25.3N  72.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 27.0N  72.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 28.5N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 29.7N  72.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  26/0000Z 31.7N  72.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  27/0000Z 33.5N  72.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 35.5N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila








Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...
...HIGH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 71.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF NASSAU
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 71.7 West. Maria is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a
gradual turn to the north should begin on Saturday. This forecast
will bring the core of Maria east of the Bahamas on Saturday, and
then over the open waters of the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  No important changes in intensity are
expected on Saturday, but gradual weakening should begin on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are still likely over portions of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the
next several hours, but should subside on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the central Bahamas on
Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands will subside as Maria moves away from those
islands.

RAINFALL:  Rains are expected to gradually diminish across portions
of the Turks and Caicos as well as the eastern Bahamas as Maria
continues to move north of those islands Friday night and Saturday.
Additional rainfall amounts of an inch or less are expected over
those areas through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells will begin to
increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and
Bermuda tonight and Saturday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

85



In this thread:

11pm AST Fri: Swells from Maria likely to cause dangerous surf & life-threatening rip currents - Chris in Tampa, 9/23/2017, 12:21 am

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