5am EDT Sunday: Tropical storm warning issued for North Carolina Outer Banks for Arthur
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 5/17/2020, 5:44 am
Became named Saturday night in 11pm advisory.

Forecast Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/?cone#contents

Satellite Floater:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_index.php






Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 77.6W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and
Albermarle Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 77.6 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will
remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia,
and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the
coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is
likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch












Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Arthur has not changed much in organization overnight. The storm
features a large curved convective band over the eastern semicircle
of the circulation, and the low-level center appears to be exposed
to the west of that band. The intensity is held at 35 kt in
agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and ADT
estimates from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the cyclone around 12Z which should provide
a good estimate of Arthur's intensity.

Although Arthur will be crossing back over the Gulf Stream tonight
and Monday, vertical shear is forecast to steadily increase during
that time. With these counteracting influences on intensity
change, only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next
24-36 hours. The official forecast is close to the model consensus
and is similar to the previous one. In 2-3 days, some strengthening
due to baroclinic processes is possible, since the global models
depict extratropical transition around that time. Later in
the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows weakening as the
frontal gradients decrease.

The storm has been moving a little to the left of the previous
estimates and the motion is now around 015/8 kt. An approaching
mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause the cyclone to
accelerate northeastward during the next 48 hours or so. Later in
the forecast period, Arthur or its post-tropical remnants should
turn eastward within a general westerly flow field. There has been
a bit of a westward shift in much of the track guidance for the
next 1-2 days, which has necessitated a leftward adjustment of the
official forecast track. Since the new NHC forecast is now closer
to the North Carolina Outer Banks, the Tropical Storm Watch has
been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for that area.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during
the next few days. See products from your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
30
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First Storm Near Carolina Coastline? - Target, 5/10/2020, 9:32 pm
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