Now Eta
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/31/2020, 11:32 pm
Satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL292020



Long term track remains very uncertain.

We've now matched 2005 in terms of the number of storms. This is the first time the name Eta has been used since in 2005 a storm was added postseason.






Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the
cyclone continues to become better organized, with a convective band
wrapping about halfway around the center. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 35 kt, and the CIMSS
satellite consensus is near 40 kt. Based on these data, the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth
named storm of the 2020 season. This ties the record for storms set
in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used
in the Atlantic basin.

The initial motion is 275/13. A low- to mid-level ridge axis that
extends from the subtropical Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the
Bahamas is currently the main steering influence, and the model
guidance is in good agreement that this feature should cause the
storm to move westward for the next 24-36 h. Between 36-72 h, a
building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should
cause Eta to turn west-southwestward as it approaches the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras. Beyond that time, there remains
significant spread in the models, with the GFS showing a slow
motion toward the northwest near the coast of Honduras while the
ECMWF/UKMET show a continued west-southwestward motion into the
Pacific. Given the spread, the NHC official track forecast shows
a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center
slowly across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new forecast
track is close to the multi-model consensus, and the 72-120 h part
remains low confidence.

Eta is over warm water and is in environment of light vertical wind
shear. These conditions are expected to continue until the system
nears the coast of Central America on 60-72 h. Thus, steady to
possibly rapid strengthening is expected, with the storm forecast to
reach hurricane strength between 36-48 h. The intensity guidance
has trended stronger since the last advisory, and this part of the
new intensity forecast is now a little below the intensity
consensus. After 72 h, the intensity forecast is tied to whether or
not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, and the
current forecast is based on the forecast track that takes the
center well inland.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early
next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday
and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge,
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua
and Honduras where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane
warnings could be needed for portions of those areas on Sunday.

2. Through Thursday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to
flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could lead to landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible near the
southern coast of Hispaniola, depending upon the track of the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.3N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 15.2N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 82.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 13.7N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/0000Z 14.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/0000Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
42
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96L - soon to be TD - 100/100 over 2/5 days - cypresstx, 10/31/2020, 2:29 pm
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