| The timing has moved up on the storm. Because Eta reformed a bit, the initial movement is an estimate by the NHC. Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite Floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL292020 https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al292020 Radars: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/index.php?menu=/home/metop/web/specific/opv/menu_config.txt&time_mode=update&zoom=7&clon=-83.069580078125&clat=26.946000468551&base=0&overlays=1&mping_mode=0&product_type=crefls&product=CREF&opacity=1&looping_active=on&num_frames=18&frame_step=200&seconds_step=600 https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/fl/saint-petersburg Only to December 8th for this site, then on to the new one: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tbw&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data on both the initial position and intensity. It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north- northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine, but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just east of the model consensus. Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida. However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed today. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West Florida through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.1 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake |