| I was waiting until it became a depression to post about it, but it's been all over social media I've heard for the past few days. It's just too early. That's always the case this far out. At times the GFS shows direct impacts along the east coast of the United States. But we're talking around 10 days out. That's a really long time from now to be looking at a model for anything more than there could possibly be a storm that could impact the eastern coast of North America. For nearly the past two days it has shown a landfall in North America, either the U.S. or Canada, but it's really far out in the GFS. The Euro doesn't even go out that far. (at the end of 10 days, it seems closer to Bermuda) GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn The NHC has been at a 100% chance of development over the next 7 days, into a depression or higher, since 2pm Monday. Colorado State floater: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/ Atlantic satellite view: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=24 Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 Storm specific models: https://hurricanecity.com/models/ I don't like to look too much at the hurricane specific models for intensity on something that hasn't developed yet, but conditions in that area of the Atlantic at least, over the next 5 days, seem like it could support this becoming a major hurricane within that time period. (HWRF, HMON, HFSA and HFSB) As well as SHIPS. https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ See latest file with "AL9523" in the filename. Then look at "V (KT) LAND", though there is no land over the next 7 days so both it and the version that assumes no land are the same. As reminder, in the HC model system, "DSHP" is the "V (KT) LAND" in that text file. "SHIP" is the "V (KT) NO LAND" in that text file. I had mentioned previously, but I added names for the HFSA and HFSB models into the HC model system: https://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?page=models#HAFS-Hurricane_Analysis_And_Forecast_System Or best names I could come up with. HFSA Hurricane Analysis And Forecast System - Configuration A - Newer version, as of 2023, of HAFS (scheduled to replace HWRF) HFSB Hurricane Analysis And Forecast System - Configuration B - Newer version, as of 2023, of HAFS (scheduled to replace HMON) News release from earlier in the year about those two: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-launches-new-hurricane-forecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong Technical info: https://www.weather.gov/media/nws/IHC2023/Presentations/Mehra_HAFS.pdf Service change notice: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2023_24/scn23-60_ncep_hurricane_models.pdf We have plenty of time to watch this storm. It is a good reminder to everyone though to review your hurricane plans for the year if you haven't already just in case it threatens areas that don't get direct impacts as often: https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes Also, Katia happened. It was, and, already isn't any longer. And also in the eastern side of the Atlantic, ex-Franklin is forecast to move erratically between the Azores and Portugal where there is warmer waters. The next thing off Africa may possibly head off more northward into the eastern Atlantic too, too soon to know. For many though, 95L is the one to watch. |