| First forecast is for it to become a 140mph hurricane. Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL132023#homePageLink https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al132023 The NHC says in the first discussion: "The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus." I was really curious what their first intensity forecast would be. They don't usually have such a rapid intensification forecast in the first advisory. But many of the models have shown this becoming an extremely powerful hurricane. It doesn't mean that if it impacts land it would hit at that intensity of course, so people shouldn't panic, just watch it. It's something people from the Bahamas, Bermuda, U.S. and Canada need to watch longer term. And the Leeward Islands in the nearer term in case it comes closer to there. Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023 Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave (Invest AL95) that we have been following for several days has become better organized this morning, with many curved low-level banding features. A partial scatterometer pass near 1201 UTC indicated a well-defined center had formed, with winds speeds of about 30 kt. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, and the current intensity is set to 30 kt. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to persist to the north of the tropical cyclone, keeping the system moving with this general motion through Saturday. The spread in the model guidance is remarkably low for a first advisory, and the official forecast is near or west of the model consensus. However, it should be noted that the NOAA corrected-consensus aids and some ensemble members are still to the left of the official forecast, so it is too early to determine exactly how close this system will get to the Leeward Islands given the average track forecast error at those time ranges. The environment around the depression appears to be conducive for strengthening. The only obvious hindering factor is light-to-moderate northeasterly shear, which should keep the intensification rate in check in the short term. However, in two to three days, this shear is forecast to relax with an upper-level ridge building near the cyclone, and the system should be moving over record-warm waters of near 30 deg C east of the Lesser Antilles (that would look more in place in the Gulf of Mexico). These factors could support rapid intensification by the end of the week, although it too early to determine exactly when this might occur until a better-defined inner core forms. The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus. All indications are that the depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.5N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake People should do basic preparations at least that should have been done in June. jerzeegirl mentioned getting trees removed/trimmed. There is time for people in the U.S. to do that and get the debris hauled off. Someone might want to call and get someone to do that if it's something you're concerned about and beat the rush of others calling and booking people up before the storm. When Idalia was potentially coming my way, I filled up my gas tank. If you're in an area along the coast, you could make sure to do that in the next week. If it were to look like the storm might come your way, you increase your preparedness. https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep Global models: GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn It's so far out yet. The every 12 hour Euro goes to 10 days and it's only just at Bermuda at the end of that timeframe. Then again, GFS is faster. It has the storm east of Cape Cod in just over 10 days in the latest run. But that's still a long way away. (and not saying it's going there, just a judge of the timing differences between the two right now) Recon Plan of the Day: NOUS42 KNHC 051537 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1145 AM EDT TUE 05 SEPTEMBER 2023 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2023 TCPOD NUMBER.....23-098 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 AT 07/2330Z. B. NOAA 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO TD 13 FOR 08/1200Z, DEPARTING TISX AT 08/0800Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ CNP/SEF Thursday evening, recon fixes start. Friday, NOAA P-3 missions. I look forward to the NOAA jet too when it gets scheduled to fly around and drop sondes all around and get some data into the models to help with steering so we can get a better idea of the path. But even then, this is just so far out. We need to see how strong this thing gets and how much that impacts things. Storm specific models: https://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2023&storm=13 |